I first noticed $CRCL on Futu’s “US Stock Movers” watchlist. Ever since the IPO, I had been getting constant push notifications about $CRCL. The stock had practically rocketed onto Futu’s “US Stock Movers” list. $CRCL‘s chart screamed overheated at first glance – a textbook IPO sentiment premium: up 300% in two weeks, retail investors piling in, social media buzzing, FOMO thick enough to feel like a 2021 flashback. My investing style has always been clear-cut: never chase highs, only buy dips – find value in pullbacks and build safety margins through contrarian bets. At the time, CRCL was nowhere near my radar. $CRCL had been public barely ten days and was already up 385%. It didn’t look like the kind of stock that would dip into opportunity. More like it had already overshot – foam piled high, not worth touching.

Testing the Waters: The 6/17 Pullback

The turning point came on June 17. $CRCL showed signs of a pullback in premarket, so I opened a small position before the bell.

It did pull back sharply intraday, briefly breaking below prior support. On top of that, Cathie Wood’s ARK fund quietly trimmed 342,658 shares at the highs, cashing out .7 million. The market was shaken. After all, she was an early Circle investor who had always preached “long-term conviction” – yet here she was, taking profits at lightning speed on the secondary market.

When I learned that ARK originally held a total of 4.5 million $CRCL shares, some quick math showed the 342,658 shares amounted to just 7.6% of her position. The trim was modest in size, but coming from Cathie Wood, the signal was ambiguous – I couldn’t tell whether more selling was on the way.

The post-open spike followed by a nosedive looked more like a shakeout. I added to my position with discipline as the main players shook out weak hands, since $GGLL (2x Long Google ETF - Direxion) and $TSLL (2x Long Tesla ETF - Direxion) still occupied 50% of my portfolio.

Storm Brewing: The 6/18 Full Reversal

After the previous day’s pullback, $CRCL showed upward momentum in premarket on June 18. I was getting ready to lock in profits.

Meanwhile, Tesla and Google were flat in premarket. Ever since the “Musk-Trump” fallout, Tesla had plunged, and I had seized the opportunity to buy the dip on $TSLL (2x Long Tesla ETF - Direxion). Later, as the relationship “mended” and Robotaxi news dropped, Tesla got a short-term pump, but then went right back to chopping around. Google was the same – \80 proved impenetrable, and it never managed to hold above that level.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East were escalating. The Israel-Iran conflict intensified, oil prices swung, and Treasuries showed some unusual moves.

By midday, I could smell the storm coming. I started unwinding positions, and cleared out my $GGLL and $TSLL before Google and Tesla officially rolled over.

As $CRCL kept climbing, I rode it to a 10% gain and decided not to get greedy – I started taking profits in batches. My expectation was 15-20% upside at best. By the time it hit 15%, I had already sold two-thirds. I planned to hold the remaining position and go to bed, but shortly after lying down, Futu’s price alert jolted me awake.

Good lord. $CRCL was already past in after-hours. I was stunned. This rally… wasn’t it supposed to be a short-term spike and fade? I had figured 15-20% was the ceiling, and it had just blown straight through.

I hesitated a few seconds, then dumped the last third. After closing, I immediately placed a short – planning to ride the next day’s pullback for another round.

But fate wasn’t done with its prank. In the middle of the night, another price alert woke me up.

What the hell. $CRCL was pushing toward  in after-hours – up over 30%.

Reason Breaks: The Next

In that moment, every shred of logic, fundamentals, bull case, bear case – all wiped clean. Only one voice echoed in my head:

It’s the next $NVDA.

Yes, I admit this was an emotional decision.

I stopped watching, stopped waiting for the thesis to close, hadn’t even had time to research what the company’s structure actually looked like.

I covered the short, reversed course, and went all in. No scaling in, no hesitation. One single bet.

Honestly, when I placed that all-in order, I knew almost nothing about the company. I knew it was related to USDC, that it issued a dollar-pegged stablecoin. The name was Circle, but what exactly did it do? Revenue model? Regulatory structure? No clue.

But that didn’t matter.

I missed Tesla in 2020, Nvidia in 2023, but I won’t miss Circle in 2025.

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Preview: Why I Went All In Without Doing the Research

In the next post, I’ll lay out from the beginning:

  • My decision-making logic
  • What I found when I actually researched $CRCL after going all in